After the Iowa caucuses, the State of the Union and President Donald Trump’s acquittal by the Senate on two articles of impeachment, the week is ending with a bang. Tonight, seven Democratic presidential candidates will square off in a debate in New Hampshire, just a few days before voters in the state head to the polls for the first primary of the election cycle.
Monday’s highly anticipated Iowa caucuses were a mess. An app meant for reporting results malfunctioned due to a “coding issue,” and precinct chairs had to wait on the phone for hours to report their results. After days of waiting as results trickled in, it’s still not completely clear who won. Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders appear neck-in-neck, with Buttigieg slightly edging out Sanders in state delegate equivalents while Sanders is slightly ahead in the popular vote. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren appears to have come in third. However, as of Thursday night, the Associated Press says it is “unable to declare a winner.”
Regardless, the Democratic presidential candidates have moved on to New Hampshire, which will vote in the election cycle’s first primary on Feb. 11. Given the chaos over who won in Iowa, doing well in New Hampshire has only become more crucial for campaigns. Tonight’s Democratic debate could be a crucial last chance for the candidates to make their case to those voters.
The New Hampshire debate will take place tonight in Manchester, N.H., at St. Anselm College. ABC News, WMUR-TV and Apple News will co-host the debate, which will air live on Feb. 7 from 8:00 to 11:00 p.m. EST on ABC and stream on on the ABC app, ABC.com and connected devices such as Roku, AppleTV and Amazon Fire TV.
ABC News chief anchor George Stephanopoulos, ABC News managing editor David Muir and ABC News correspondent Linsey Davis, WMUR-TV political director Adam Sexton and WMUR-TV news anchor Monica Hernandez will all moderate. Stephanopoulos and Muir previously moderated the September debate.
Seven candidates qualified for New Hampshire Democratic debate: former Vice President Joe Biden, Buttigieg, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Sanders, billionaire executive Tom Steyer, Warren and entrepreneur Andrew Yang.
Candidates had until 11:59 p.m. on Feb. 6 to get at least 5% in four DNC-approved polls or 7% in at least two early state polls (New Hampshire, South Carolina and/or Nevada). They also needed to receive at least 225,000 unique donors with at least 1,000 unique donations in 20 states, U.S. territories or Washington D.C. Starting with the New Hampshire debate, there’s also a third way to qualify: candidates can make the stage with at least one pledged delegate for the Democratic National Convention based on the results of caucuses or primaries.
The DNC plans to hold a debate in each early voting state, meaning tonight’s debate will be the first of three debates in February alone. The next two will be on Feb. 19 in Las Vegas and Feb. 25 in Charleston.
Dante Scala, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, tells TIME that tonight’s debate could possibly impact Tuesday’s vote. “You shouldn’t underestimate the volatility of New Hampshire primary voters, even in the last weekend,” he says. “[There’s] a lot of people who will, believe it or not, just be tuning in for the week between Iowa and New Hampshire… They might be moved quite a bit by what’s in the news that week.”
Of course, that’ll depend on what happens tonight. Follow along for live updates from the February Democratic Debate.
How will the candidates respond to the uncertainty of the Iowa caucus?
“Some candidates will use the ambiguity [of the winner] to their advantage,” Mia Costa, a professor of government at Dartmouth University writes in an email to TIME. “All candidates are likely to put an optimistic spin on how well they performed, but for some, the debate will be an important opportunity to make the case that they are still the party’s best shot at defeating Trump.”
Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, predicts that Biden may try to find a way to undercut Buttigieg and
Sanders, Sanders and Buttigieg might clash, and Warren may hang back and let the three duke it out.
And looks like Sanders and Buttigieg can already started going at it. On Friday,
Sanders tweeted a collage of various headlines about Buttigieg’s billionaire backers, writing, “T
his election is fundamentally about whose side you are on. #PetesBillionaires.” It already has over 32,000 likes and #PetesBillionaires has been trending on Twitter. More likely than not, Sanders will repeat this message on stage tonight.“Iowa more generally is bound to come up as a topic in the debate,” Costa writes. “Should the Democratic party abolish caucuses? Should Iowa still go first? These aren’t new questions, but after the mess on Monday, it will be interesting to hear how the candidates address the issues inherent in the caucusing process.”
Margaret O’Mara, a professor of American political history at the University of Washington, explains that just like in past elections, candidates who fell short in Iowa will need to prove they’re still viable. “So Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden will be the ones to watch on the debate stage, making their case for why [New Hampshire] voters should choose them over Iowa frontrunners Sanders and Buttigeig,” she writes in an email. O’Mara adds that Sanders might take the confusion in Iowa — especially given how close he is to winning — as an opportunity to criticize party leadership and emphasizes his anti-establishment message.
Scala, on the other hand, thinks the night will be about Buttigieg. Of the two front runners from Iowa, candidates might perceive his base as more vulnerable than than Sanders’, and may go after him with more force. “My sense is that Sanders voters have been Sanders voters for a long time. But Buttigieg voters are new, and if they’re new they could change their mind again,” he explains.
What to watch for ahead of the New Hampshire primary
Like many of the past debates, crucial Democratic issues such as health care, climate change, economic inequality and gun control may come up. Scala adds that
the opioid crisis might also get more attention, as it has hit New Hampshire particularly hard.
This also might be the last debate without the presence of
former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The 77-year-old billionaire has pledged to self-fund his campaign, meaning he hasn’t hit a debate’s donor threshold despite having the needed polling numbers. However, starting with the next debate in Nevada, candidates won’t need a certain amount of donors, thereby opening the door for Bloomberg to appear on a debate stage.
More progressive candidates — Warren in particular — have taken Bloomberg’s entrance into the race as a vehicle
to campaign against the sway of money in politics. She might take tonight’s debate as a last chance to call out Bloomberg before he’s on the same stage as her.
Also make sure to keep an eye on Warren and Sanders.
The last debate included a tense exchange between two of them over whether Sanders told her a woman couldn’t beat Trump in 2018 (she says he told her so in 2018; he denies it). Although they’ve been publicly cordial since then, it’s worth watching how the two progressives — and friends — interact.
“[W]ith all the sound and fury of this week’s news cycles,” O’Mara says. “All bets are off on how much the debate will break through into the public consciousness.”
Via Time
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